Putin’s game of patience

It’s now just over six months since Russia invaded the Ukraine, an invasion that was preceded by all manner of official Russian denials it had any intention of invading its neighbour & former member of the USSR.

The mass build up of military forces at the border of Ukraine lasted months and whilst NATO sat by and procrastinated Russia invaded the Ukraine on the 24th of February.

Since the invasion, or to use Putin’s irrelevant term, special military operation, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced in Europe’s largest migration crisis since WW2.

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed, thousands more abducted & taken to Russia & thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died defending their country.

The usual Russian tactics of targeting civilian infrastructure & as a result, civilians, has resulted in many war crimes being committed, all of which have been rebuked by Putin and his media mouthpieces.

And yet when Darya Dugina was blown up in a car bomb that was allegedly targeting her father Aleksandr, a close ally of Putin, the same media kicked into gear and called her a martyr. The FSB have apparently solved the crime and accused the a Ukrainian woman from the Azov regiment for the murder.

However in many respects the tit for tat exchanges in the media & even the events on the battlefield, which appear to have reached stalemate, are almost an aside to what is now playing out across the West.

Ever since the war started in February a slew of sanctions have been announced by governments across the west targeting the assets of Russia’s oligarchs and those close to Putin and also Russian exports. Crucially these include gas and oil exports.

The UK and in particular the EU have been dependent on oil and gas exports from Russia for many years so the shockwaves of these sanctions reverberated around the region and have manifested themselves in huge rises in the prices of these commodities.

Gas in particular has become the weapon of choice that Putin is using the exert pressure on the west.

Putin had always warned the west that sanctions would hurt us more than it would hurt Russia. Possibly a brave statement but with ever closer ties to China and other countries who are willing to buy oil & gas from Russia, these words are coming back to haunt the west.

But it’s not just oil and gas. Grain exports have been heavily compromised and are only just restarting after many months of inactivity.

However fuel is the biggest issue. Oil and gas feed into the costs of almost everything we consume and with inflation jumping at rates not seen since the early 80s and household budgets being squeezed, governments across the west are pulling out all the stops to quell the impact of the war in Ukraine.

These costs will mount up as the conflict continues and with winter approaching there is a very definite feel in the air that a peace deal must be brokered between the Ukraine and Russia: not just for the good of the very people on the front line but for the good of people around the world.

Putin will be well aware of the actions taken by the west and is riled by the amount of arms being sent to support the Ukraine so the long game is one he will most definitely consider.

Can he declare a victory now and try to broker a peace deal? Would he countenance such a deal now when he knows that winter is only a few months away and the west’s resolve may start to crack?

It is one thing for governments to pledge support and present one front in the summer but when thousands of not millions are being plunged into fuel poverty will those same governments crack and look for a way out that will compromise the integrity of Ukraine’s borders?

Can Zelensky be talked into a compromise for the good of the majority in lieu of his battered country? Dare the west try to enforce a deal that may imbue Putin with a sense of renewed bravado and give him the confidence to go after another land grab?

The one thing that Putin has catastrophically miscalculated was the reaction of the west and in particular those countries who were on the fringes of NATO.

NATO is perhaps more united that any time in recent years and with Sweden & Finland joining the alliance, they form a formidable barrier to Russian influence in the region.

However all of that pales into insignificance this coming winter is cold and long and the people across the west cannot heat their homes or feed themselves due to spiraling inflationary pressures brought about by the supply chain crisis caused by oil & gas shortages.

Public sentiment has, by and large, been very supportive of the plight of the Ukrainians but Putin knows the greatest test of resilience to this support with play out in the coming months.

Governments across the west are scrambling to put support packages in place but inflationary pressure across the board has now seen strike action in the UK as unions fight to secure pay deals reflective of the new normal in an inflationary economy.

How long before peaceful demonstrations and strike action turn violent? Will the public be as vociferous in their support of the Ukraine when the temperature gauge hits minus 5 and people are freezing in their own homes?

Will there be more support for the population, especially in the UK where the energy price cap is predicted to approach £4000?

What pressures do these energy prices exert on the public finances? After the battering economies took during the pandemic will the stomach be there to throw even more public money at the public to help them through this extremely difficult period?

Is this headline from the Daily Express a hint that the coffers are empty?

The west needs to plot a route that best serves the people of Ukraine, people of the west and also prevents Putin from taking some sort of victory away from the invasion launched on the 24th of February.

The west must also consider any approach to placate Putin will alert China to the possibility of taking further action in their quest for control of Taiwan.

As we saw with Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, tensions can easily escalate. The Chinese were so offended with the visit they embarked on a series of military exercises off the coast Taiwan to show their disdain.

With Moscow and Beijing currently enjoying a diplomatic bromance and both leaders seemingly hell bent on asserting their authority the west cannot afford any mistakes in how they deal with these situations.

A difficult few months lie ahead, not least for the people of Ukraine.

How the west reacts and supports people through this current cost of living crisis will perhaps dictate how any diplomatic route to peace may evolve.

Autocracy is in ascendancy, of that there is now doubt. Autocrats across the world are flagrantly ignoring international law and goading the west as they flout the west’s attempts to assert any form of authority.

Myanmar being another case in point where the military junta are using all the powers they have grabbed to push back against any form of social uprising.

Many will be looking to Russia for clues on much resolve the west will have come the winter months as the energy crisis bites hard on western homes.